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 When the year 2015-16 closed on March 31, 2016 there had been a growth of 15.72% over the previous year which had seen a decline of 8.33% due to the FSSAI problems. The importers were quite optimistic and expected an increase of 20-25% in sales and also saw a ray of hope in making profits. That hope was belied due to several factors- the high duties being now a constant and common factor.
Delhi Excise did not announce the policy till October and the importers had to work on a piecemeal extension basis. The Customs department came up with a new warehousing policy, causing many disruptions in the existent fragile system. Many states had confusing policies of prohibition. The much discussed demonetisation did affect the sales to varying extents. It is commendable that based on the continual discussions with importers, hotels and our surveys, our latest estimates indicate a growth of 15.38% in the Top Ten Importers’ sales. See the List:
|
Importer |
2012-13 |
2013-14 |
2014-15 |
2015-16 |
2016-17 (est) |
1 |
Brindco |
63,000 |
80,000 |
60,000 |
71,500 |
78,000 |
2 |
Pernod Ricard |
35,000 |
50,000 |
65,000 |
65,000 |
80,000 |
3 |
Aspri |
30,000 |
30,500 |
21,000 |
28,500 |
30,000 |
4 |
Moet Hennessy |
34,000 |
38,000 |
30,000 |
25,000 |
30,000 |
5 |
Prestige |
14,800 |
17,500 |
17,900 |
23,800 |
26,000 |
6 |
Berkmann India |
14,200 |
16,000 |
16,000 |
23,800 |
25,500 |
7 |
Sula |
14,000 |
15,000 |
16,700 |
22,000 |
32,000 |
8 |
Hema Connoisseur |
12,200 |
15,200 |
12,900 |
18,500 |
18,500 |
9 |
Wine Park |
|
6,000 |
7,500 |
9,000 |
10,500 |
10 |
Mohan Bros |
8,500 |
10,500 |
8,000 |
8,000 |
- |
11 |
Global Tax Free |
7,500 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
10,000* |
|
Total |
233,200 |
278,700 |
255,000 |
295,100 |
340,500 |
|
Growth y-y |
|
19.51% |
( 8.33%) |
15.72 % |
15.38 % |
|
|
Both Brindco and Pernod Ricard are expected to show a steady growth to vie for the top spot at 78,000-80,000 cases. In value, of course Brindco is by far the biggest importer since most of their wines are more expensive than the ubiquitous Jacobs Creek. Aspri and Hema would barely manage to keep the last year’s figures. Prestige and Berkmann India would maintain a steady and healthy growth as would Wine Park. A quantum jump will take place at Sula where the aggressive policies of Hardy’s and a few of the other labels imported by Sula are showing promising growth. Mohan Bros. will go out of our radar because of a heavy slashing of their portfolio. They have restructured themselves but the result will show only during the next financial year.
Moet Hennessy is still an enigma. They refuse to divulge their figures, not because they conduct any shady business but perhaps because of a large involvement with re-exports, the extent of which they don’t like to share. Their earlier years’ figures were earlier adjusted to account for some of the re-exports based on industry estimates.
Traditionally, the Top Ten have controlled 70% of the market but with an increasing number of smaller importers recording impressive growths of 30-40%, albeit on a much smaller base, the number has been gradually decreasing and is estimated to be at 66.66 % (two-thirds). Even assuming the number to be at 70%, the estimated sale of imported wines in 2016-17 would be 485,000-flirting at the half-a-million mark if the sales in March are as positive as the importers expect (though that should not reflect in the secondary sales in the market).
Changing Trends
A major shift has been taking to the lower priced wines by hotels even as the retail consumers are moving up a notch. Due to high taxation (the duty free imports have been cut down from 10% to 3% and most of the hotels in Mumbai with foreign connections have not been able to get their licenses renewed even though Delhi is slightly better off) impact, the hotels are choosing to buy lower priced wines. Retailers find people moving up the ladder a bit but the net result is lowering of value of wines consumed. This is not an encouraging trend since better quality wines will be short-changed. A very small segment of affluent connoisseurs is increasing at a faster rate-increasing the sale of Rs.5000 + wines in retail. But the actual numbers are still too small even though this segment will be the strength in future. There has been faster growth in Mumbai for this segment.
A positive trend has been that more and more people are taking to drinking wine. delWine estimates an annual growth of 30%, placing the number of current drinkers at 3-5 million- a very rough estimate. However the number is an indication that the number of drinkers has gone up by around 100% during the last 4-5 years-again a very rough estimate- no studies have been done.
Due to paucity of time there could be no panel discussion, the main purpose of getting Sonal Holland (MW) from Mumbai, Reva Singh of Sommelier India and Prateek Arora, Director of Q’la to share the consumer experience at the restaurant. Thanks to the stringent excise laws and perhaps the policy of the venue, India International Center, there were no wines to taste, making it a rather tame, flavourless affair and perhaps a missed opportunity of exploring the progress made by the industry.
Despite the lack of any creditable data, delWine has been bravely publishing the list of Top Ten Importers for several years by feeling the pulse of the market through constant interaction with importers, retailers and hotels and restaurants. The next Top Ten 2016-17 List will be published in May, 2017.
Subhash Arora |