|
 Market sentiments on the collectible Fine Wines seem to have turned for the better in the final quarter of 2014. In contrast to the previous three years when the early rise gave fall in the prices in the subsequent quarters every year, it is the fourth quarter that has seen increases rather than the first quarter, according to live-ex.com
In the three years previous to 2014, optimism in the build-up to En Primeur during the first quarter of the year lifted the fine wine market. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 saw increases of up to 3.3% in February 2011. However, this early optimism was dashed by a subsequently overpriced and disappointing En Primeur campaign and the index ultimately ended the year on a loss, in each of those years.
By the beginning of 2014, following three disappointing En Primeur campaigns, expectations for the release of the 2013 vintage were low. Coupled with the knowledge that this was a particularly poor vintage- according to some Bordeaux experts it was the worst in decades, En Primeur 2014 failed to provide even the first quarter bounce. Instead, the Liv-ex 100 saw declines throughout the first three quarters of this year.
The Fine Wine 100 index, which follows the 100 most sought after wines in the secondary market, rose 0.3% in November, as the market continues to edge slowly upwards after 17 months of quite serious decline.
The Fine Wine 50 however, which charts the first growths, declined slightly (0.2%) on October, which has been difficult for the five estates with weekly reports showing rises followed by falls, according to the Drinks Business.
Taittinger (imported by Prestige Wines) Comtes de Champagne 2004 was the main mover in November increase and its price rose to £717 a case of 6 bottles. Comtes is one of the leading prestige cuvées from Champagne and has seen a great deal of success with recent releases due to its quality and solid scores. Other top movers in November included mature Bordeaux Top Growths such as 1996 Pichon- Langueville Lalande (super Second growth from Pauillac) and Chateau Margaux (First Growth from Margaux) and 2000 Lynch Bages (Fifth Growth from Pauillac) and Chateau Haut-Brion 2008 (First Growth from Pessac); 2008 was considered an off vintage for Bordeaux.
The trend was not uniform though- the First Growth Bordeaux Chateau Latour 2005 ( Pauillac-an excellent year) was also among the worst-performing wines with a drop of 3.4%. Even the Laffite 2010 saw a fall of 4.6%, ostensibly due to a lack of demand from its strongest market China.
Both Lynch Bages and Angelus 2009 also declined by 4.4% and by 5.1% resp. The super Tuscan Ornellaia 2010 from Bolgheri has had some success recently but it also stumbled slightly by 3.5%.
The Fine Wine market has been generally declining since March 2013. However, seventeen months of decline have started to be reversed and it appears prices for many wines have bottomed out according to Live-ex and a turnaround is on the cards. Bordeaux seems to be back in fashion. The latest trade indicated that the Bordeaux 500 was the best-performing sub-index in the Fine Wine 100, rising 0.3% during the week of 28 November and 4 December.
The first growth monitor, the Fine Wine 50, went up 0.3% in the same week and all of the week’s top trades by value were from Bordeaux – Mouton-Rothschild 2004 and 2003 were right on top.
As Liv-ex has noted before and reported by Drinks Business in October it’s too late for the year to finish the year in the black but the signs going into 2015 are increasingly positive. Does breaking the pattern of the previous three years in the red point to a longer term change of direction? Time will tell but our subscribers are advised to be restrained and cautious. |