Only
the meteorological departments in India are usually credited with
such 'accurate' forecasts. Reason advanced for this turn-about is that
the Australian grape vines are showing greater resilience to drought
than expected.
The greatest increase in production in 2007-08 is expected to occur
in the cool-climate grape growing regions. Production of both red and
white wine grape varieties in warm climate regions,is likely to remain
constrained by continued shortages of irrigation water.
Production of red grape varieties in 2007-08 is forecast to increase
by 31% from 2006-07, mostly because of an improvement in yields.
The increase in white grape varietal output is expected to increase
in 2007-08, but at lower rate, primarily because more white grapes are
grown in warm climate regions where smaller production increases are
expected.
The forecast is higher than the earlier estimate of 1.6 million tonnes
but well below the peak of 1.9 million tons reached 3 years ago. During
2008-09, wine grape production is projected to increase further, to 1.78
million tonnes, but water availability will be a constraint.
According to last year's figures, Australia exported over A $3 billion
($2.9 billion) worth of wine a year. At the rate their currency is appreciating,
that figure will soon cross US $ 3 billion. The Australian dollar hit
a fresh 24-year high today when it was traded at $US0.961 and rising.
Last time it touched a high was on March 16, 1984, when it touched a
high of $US0.965.
With an increase of over 15-20% in the Aussie dollar and expected 31%
increase in production of red grapes, prices are expected to remain under
pressure for another year, especially for the red wines.
Subhash Arora |