The Wealth Report 2012 forecasts that Asia and other emerging economies around the world will dominate real global GDP by 2050. The share of North America and Western Europe in global output will fall from 41 percent in 2010 to just 18 percent in 2050, it says. “Developing Asia’s share is expected to rise from 27 percent to 49 percent in 2050. China will overtake the US to become the world’s largest economy by 2020, which in turn will be overtaken by India in 2050.”
Out of the BRIC countries, China is expected to grow from $9.98 trillion in 2010 to 80.02 in 2050, right behind India but Russia is expected to be a laggard with the GDP growing from $2.20T to only $7.77T whereas Brazil may experience slightly better growth from $2.16 Trillion to $11.58T.
The economic growth is expected to be highest in the east with 9 out of the 10 fastest economies being east of Suez canal and India poised to maintain an incredible growth of 8% for the next 40 years, year after year. Europe will be laggard, with the Bottom Ten consisting of 9 European countries, all with an annual GDP growth of under 2%.
Japan finds itself in the bottom of totem pole with the growth of only 1%. Its GDP is expected to rise very modestly from $4.33T to only $ 6.48T in 40 years!
While cities like London, New York, Singapore and Hong Kong will continue to keep their importance for the High Net Worth individual, Shanghai and Beijing will continue their ascent in terms of importance fast and Shanghai will become the leading city IN 2050, with Sao Paolo increasing its importance to be in Top Ten. Mumbai and Delhi also FIND a mention in the important cities.
Citing calculations by London School of Economics professor Danny Quah, the report predicts that world’s economic centre of gravity, a theoretical measure of the focal point of global economic activity based on GDP, will shift eastwards to lie somewhere between China and India.
The growing importance of Asia is also reflected in the rise of the super-wealthy population in the region. For the first time, the number of Asians with at least $100 million in disposable assets has overtaken those in North America. “There are now 18,000 centa-millionaires in the region covering South-East Asia, China and Japan. This is more than North America, which has 17,000, and Western Europe with 14,000,” the report says.
South-East Asian deca-millionaires (those with $10 million or more in assets) already outnumber those in Europe, and and are also expected to overtake those in the US in the coming decade.
The report bodes well for the wine industry in India because the 20-fold projected increase in GDP will automatically result in extra consumption of wine by manifolds-and due only to this factor alone. However, Such reports are only indicative of certain current trends at best and need to be tweaked every year for social and political changes. India is at a cross-road with the apathy of the government, increasing population, factionalism and casteism in its politics and the unbridled corruption eating away like cancer, it sounds incredible that India could be at the top . A majority may not be living to check the authenticity and final outcome of this report.
But this what Incredible India is all about!
For Full Report and interesting statistics, Click Here |