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Delhi Wine Club
 

Posted: Wednesday, January 14 2009. 16:50

Study forecasts marginal effect of Recession on Wine Consumption

The economic crisis affecting many wine consuming countries will have a limited effect on the consumption during the next four years, predicts a report, commissioned by Bordeaux based Vinexpo, presented at a news conference in Paris yesterday.

Global production and consumption are expected to rise with production expected to grow by 3.83 percent from 2008 to 2012 to slightly more than 3 billion 9-liter cases. The consumption will grow at an even quicker pace of 6% from 2008 to 2012, reaching 2.8 billion cases, according to the report.

The U.S. lags far behind Europeans in per-capita wine consumption but could overtake Italy as the world's biggest wine consumer by 2012, according to the report, by the International Wine and Spirit Record (IWSR) which forecasts that U.S. consumers would consume 313 million cases making them the biggest wine consuming nation.

In 2007, Italy overtook the neighbouring France to its wine-producing neighbour, to become the biggest consumer, drinking 299 million cases, the report said.

UK has displaced Germany to become the world's biggest importer of wine with import of 136 million cases) in 2007. The annual per capita consumption in UK at 28.3 litres is still less than half of the French who still drink 58.8 litres. Despite the increase in imports, sales dropped by more than 3.5% in the first nine months of 2008, largely due to a fall in the on-trade sales in bars and pubs. Annual growth in the UK wine market is expected to halve to 6% by 2012 from the 12% growth logged in from 2003-07, the report said.

Consumers are also opting to drink more at home, than at the pubs and bars, ostensibly to cut down on the cost of going out. Surprising, this trend has also encouraged more wine drinking. Another interesting trend forecasts an increase in white wine consumption from estimated 764 million bottles last year to 823 million by 2012, with rosé recording and explosive growth of almost 50% to 220 million. The red wine consumption will continue to decline from 720 million bottles in 2008 to 687 million in the same period.

UK is still only 13th in the ranking of world consumption per head and is expected to maintain this position over the next five years. World's top five largest consumers of wine per capita are: France (58.8 litres) Italy (56.4 litres) Switzerland (49.2 litres) Portugal (44.9 litres) and Austria (42.2 litres). Consumption in most of these countries is expected to fall in the next five years.

Although India consumes about 500 million cases of alcohol, total wine consumption has been a miniscule 1.4 million cases. Hit by recession, Mumbai terrorist attack and the confusing excise rules and procedures, the growth is expected to be negative, at least during this year.
Delhi .

January 14, 2009

       

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