| Although the last grapes from Australia's 2007 wine grape harvest have yet to be picked and final statistics compiled, the latest forecasts from the Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation (AWBC) indicate a decline of about 35% compared to the average crop of 1.9 million tonnes during the last three years. The expected crop of 1.35 million tons will be the smallest since 2000
There may be 400 million litres less wine than last year, says Lawrie Stanford, Managing the Analysis at AWBC. This is only slightly lower than 431 milion liters consumed in the domestic market last year.
The quality is expected to be good but not exceptional. It has been a relatively disease free season. Smaller berry size and lower bunch weights will also increase colour and flavour intensity.
The 2007 harvest commenced two to six weeks early, with many regions indicating that was the earliest in living memory." The 2007 crush has proved difficult for the industry to accurately predict with the extraordinary conditions providing previously unexperienced conditions for many," Mr Stanford said. "In these circumstances, vineyard owners are finding that, on harvesting, there are fewer tonnages to be cropped than were previously estimated during the ripening period."
"Yields in cooler-climate regions were more reduced than those in the warm
districts because of the concentration of frost incidents in the cooler districts that added to the effect of drought. Yields in the warm regions are anticipated to be down 32% on last year with the cooler climate regions down 42%." Overall yields have been lowest in 30 years.
"Reds were more affected than whites by the seasonal conditions with yields thought to be 40% down compared to a 29% decline in whites. The higher proportion of reds in the cooler-climate regions would have contributed to the greater effects on reds than whites."
"It is notable that the harsh 2007 conditions are likely to have carryover effects into the next harvest too because of poor development of the primordial buds that sit behind those flowering this year, and which will produce fruit next year," he said.
"This, together with expectations of reduced irrigation water availability in the warm districts, means that yields may again be reduced in 2008."
So me individual grape growers might suffer financial hardship from smaller crops. But from the industry perspective, a low yielding season will bring some relief as it will allow excess wine stocks to be reduced to more reasonable levels and accelerate a return to more sustainable operating conditions.
The smaller 2007 harvest has firmed up the Corporation's assessment, released in November last year, that a return to supply-demand balance is a likely scenario by 2008 or 2009.
This is going to result in a lot less cut throat competition and provide a fillip to the South African and Chilean producers who have been squeezed due to increasing competition because of the excess supply.
It is in the export markets where the Australians have been making significant strides. In 2006 they sold a record 757 million litres of wine overseas, 8% growth by volume over the year. Yet by value export sales were only 1% higher at A$2.82 billion. This means they have been behind the fierce competition in the UK supermarkets for the past two to three years.
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